Doing some math and contemplating the idea of “noise”

So, it’s the mid-way point of the 2012-2013 AHL season. The Crunch are in 4th place in the Eastern Conference after being in first for the last few weeks. We’re second in the East Division, again after being in first for most of the season so far.

What happened?

We lost twice at home, once on the road.

That pattern of more home losses than road losses is slightly unnerving, especially since it’s been going on all season. It probably won’t be damming.

But, it certainly is frustrating for the fans.

The facts:

The Crunch are 24-10-2-3.

We’ve played 17 games at home and we’ve won 8 of them. That’s obviously just slightly shy of fifty percent (roughly 47 percent).

We’ve played 22 away games and we’ve won 16 of them. That’s a winning percentage of roughly 73 percent.

During the second half of the season, this team will play 16 away games and 21 home games. There’s 74 points still on the table right now.

The conjecture:

If roughly the same winning percentage the Crunch has continues, the Crunch will potentially miss out on 21 points at home (yeouch) and 8 points on the road during their final 37 games. With no way real way to account for overtime/shootout points, that’s potentially 29 points missed out 0f 74, compared to the 25 points out of 73 we’ve missed out on as of today.

The Crunch would end with a points total of 98.

Playoffs if that happens? Absolutely. No doubt.

Obviously, if everyone continued at the same pace they’re on, we’d stay in fourth in the conference but have a points edge over the second and third place teams. The AHL’s rule of having divisional leaders nab first, second and third place skews things a little there. We’d be fine and we’d play some great playoff hockey.

But, with a home-loaded second half, it certainly would make the fans feel a little better if our Crunch could amass more than a fifty percent winning percentage in front of us, especially as it isn’t really possible to guarantee a continued 73% road win percentage.

At the end of the day, these guys are so talented. We want desperately to be able to cheer for them as they win in front of us. I think the fanbase has come to love these guys as a whole, something we never really managed during ANA’s time here. We felt affection for certain players who always went out there and did their jobs, but we never really managed to like the team as a whole. There was too much bullshit going on and the team felt too fractured. I was never really sure if those guys even liked each other. This is so different, it feels so different, and we’re grateful and happy for it.

But watching these guys struggle at home game after game makes it tough to really see that talent, that wholeness, and it also makes it tough to let our team feel the love that’s there for them. Yeah, certain groups at the game last night created a shitload of noise, but they didn’t do it because they love that team. They did it because they were drunk and that’s what drunk college kids do at sporting events.

The noise those groups created last night added to the atmosphere, but their cacophony wasn’t the kind of noise that should be heard in that building, not with the team we have. It wasn’t the noise this fan base can achieve when our War Memorial is loaded with people who love their team, their sport, their league, who know what’s going on and who are there because they know they’re more likely than not to see a win.

I want to hear that kind of noise. It’s been too long without it. Some consistent effort at home for a full 60 minutes would go a long way towards hearing that kind of noise again. Away wins are amazing. You can’t win championships without them. But home wins are equally, if not a little more, important, simply because it’s what fan bases need to see.

This is a hungry fan base, Crunch. Feed us.